Category Archives: Red Sox

Terse Predictions: 2013 World Series Game 3, Boston @ St. Louis

Probably tragically inaccurate forecasts as the Red Sox and Cardinals meet tonight at Busch Stadium for a pivotal swing game with the 2013 World Series knotted up at one win apiece.

1. The sloppy defense in the first two games is contagious. Each team will commit at least one error in Game 3.

2. Boston will have five runners LOB in the first three innings.

3. Jake Peavy will give up at least one run in the first two innings.

4. Peavy will lay down one successful bunt in the ballgame.

5. St. Louis starter Joe Kelly will throw less than 90 pitches.

6. A total of three home runs will be hit in the ballgame.

7. Will Middlebrooks will double sometime in the later innings.

8. Quintin Berry will pinch run but will not steal any bases.

9. Brandon Workman will come into the game before the 8th inning.

10. At least one Red Sox hitter will start and see single-digit pitches overall in the game.

This Week in Boston Baseballing, October 18 – 24

The Red Sox finished off the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS on Saturday night. Shane Victorino was the hero as he hit a grand slam to seal the series in six games. The 2013 World Series got off to a swimming start for the Sox at Fenway Park on Wednesday night thanks to timely hitting by Mike Napoli, a shutdown start by Jon Lester and shoddy defense from the Cardinals infield. Will Leitch probably summed it up best on Sports on Earth by saying “You half expected Jeff Suppan to pinch-run.”

It was Boston’s turn to bumblefuck away the ballgame in Game 2 last night. The key gaffe and goat status belongs to reliever Craig Breslow. Unfortunately, Sox fans will have a hard time erasing this disturbing image from their heads until around 8:07 p.m. Saturday night.

Just hold the fucking ball, Breslow!

Just hold the fucking ball, Breslow!

Sequentiality and the 2013 World Series
Game 2 last night came down to the “sequencing” argument that analysts have talked about quite a bit lately when explaining St. Louis’ success this season. The whole concept may seem overstated and simplistic. But last night’s game served as an important case in point that when pivotal moments occur for a given team is as important as how many pivotal moments occur.

Starters John Lackey and Michael Wacha were essentially equals in their effectiveness. Lackey gave up two extra hits but Wacha walked two extra batters while giving up two extra base hits – a double and a homer. Lackey’s only extra bagger allowed was a leadoff triple. However, while Boston’s bottom-line offensive production was arguably better than St. Louis’ overall, it was bunched into the first six innings. Red Sox hitters were shut down by the Cardinals’ fantastic tandem of young relievers, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal. The Cards made their opportunities count – mainly by accumulating most of their success late in Lackey’s outing and, unfortunately for Breslow, immediately upon the Boston starter’s exit.

As Gordon Edes writes, St. Louis forced the issue at the perfect moment and it paid off:

Opponents stole one base in four attempts against Breslow this season; they doubled that total Thursday night when pinch-runner Pete Kozma and Jon Jay executed a double steal, even though Kozma all but telegraphed their intentions a couple of pitches earlier. They were helped when Saltalamacchia didn’t grab the ball cleanly from behind the plate.

Call it a triumph of advance scouting, the Cardinals apparently detecting something that suggested success if they tried running on Breslow.

Breslow was clearly shaken and the action likely contributed to his untimely throwing error. Boston, by contrast, was in a lesser position to capitalize on second baseman Matt Carpenter’s error in the 8th inning with Martinez bringing his A-game last night. That Ortiz’s homer came with a man on base was a stroke of good fortune. But faced with going down 2-0 heading home for Game 3, St. Louis simply created its own luck more effectively.

David Ortiz Homers in Second Straight World Series Game
Big Papi put on a perfect swing to drive a pitch on the outer half of the plate over the left-field wall. What else is there to say about this guy?

Ortiz HR Game 2

The Jonny Gomes vs. Daniel Nava Debate Continues
John Farrell cited “momentum” in explaining his decision to start Jonny Gomes in the first two games of the World Series. Gomes did little to vindicate Farrell aside from making a nice diving catch early in Game 1. Going into the series the manager’s loyalty to Gomes over Daniel Nava was already looking curious. As Dave Cameron pointed out on ESPN:

Gomes can’t even claim the hot hand advantage, as he has hit just .200/.259/.280 in the postseason, not a huge surprise considering he’s being asked to face elite right-handed pitchers, a role he’s just not made for. Gomes might be an intense personality whose energy sparks his teammates, but he can yell from the dugouts steps and inspire his teammates by encouraging them between innings.

Meanwhile, Nava likely dispelled any notion that perhaps he’s banged up by hitting a pinch-hit double Wednesday night. Unless something changes, it sounds like Nava is finally going to get his chance to start in Game 3. It would be nice to see Farrell give Nava the same leeway as he gave Gomes. But, unfortunately, it wouldn’t be a surprise if its Gomes again starting in Game 4 if Nava goes hitless on Saturday.

Clay Buchholz Gets Pushed to Game 4
With Boston clinging to hopes he can eek out one more effective start this year, the right-hander’s injury-plagued 2013 looks to be catching up with him. The Red Sox are likely to have a short leash on Buchholz Sunday night even if he shows early effectiveness. Meanwhile, St. Louis has yet to announce its starter, making Game 4 look like it has the potential to have an ugly start and turn into a dreaded “bullpen game.”

Koji Threw Three Curveballs All Season
A parting thought: FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noted an interesting outlier pitch in Koji Uehara’s repertoire this season. The Sox reliever threw only three pitches all season that could be classified as curveballs.

But he hasn’t thrown it once since July. Even though, in that third time, the curve worked. Maybe Uehara came to realize a curve wouldn’t be necessary. Maybe he still didn’t trust it, recalling the first two experiences. Or maybe Uehara’s still sitting on this, just waiting to flash it again in the World Series when the stakes are at their highest. Last year, Sergio Romo froze Miguel Cabrera with an elevated fastball. Might this be the year that Uehara freezes Carlos Beltran with a two-strike curve? I wouldn’t count on that, because Uehara’s already got his weapons. But you have to wonder about this one, because you know it’s in there somewhere. Odds are that we aren’t going to see it this October. But odds also were that we weren’t going to see it this season.

Enough odd things have already happened in the 2013 World Series that all we can safely say is you just never know…

Terse Predictions: World Series Game 2, St. Louis @ Boston

Knee jerk, reactionary, non-replay-eligible thoughts on what will happen in Game 2 of the World Series tonight at Fenway Park.

1. Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma will cleanly record an out in the first inning and receive one of the loudest mock cheers from the Fenway crowd in recent memory.

2. The margin of victory will be two runs.

3. John Lackey will not finish the 7th inning.

4. Lackey’s average fastball velocity over the first three innings will be 94 mph.

5. During the team’s first turn through the order, three Red Sox batters will swing at the first pitch.

6. Shane Victorino will bat right-handed and left-handed before the night is over.

7. Jonny Gomes will strike out multiple times against Michael Wacha.

8. Michael Wacha’s total pitches thrown: 110

9. John Lackey’s total pitches thrown: 95

10. Koji Uehara’s total pitches thrown: 20

Terse Predictions: 2013 World Series, Game 1 – St. Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox

Highly specific forecasts for the opening game of the 2013 World Series tonight at Fenway Park.

1. The Cardinals will take a lead against the Red Sox in a World Series game for the first time in 46 years.

2. Adam Wainwright will record six more outs in the game than Jon Lester.

3. Total runs scored in the game will be somewhere between five and eight runs. Overall, only two earned runs will be charged to the starting pitchers.

4. Mike Napoli will strike out thrice, but also add an extra-base hit of some sort.

5. Dustin Pedroia will hit a double off the left-field wall on the first pitch he sees during one of his at-bats against Wainwright.

6. The Red Sox will issue two intentional walks – one to Carlos Beltran and one to Allen Craig.

7. Only one player will record multiple base hits in the game.

8. Xander Bogaerts’ Total Pitches Seen: 17

9. Koji Uehara’s Total Pitches Thrown: 17

10. MLB “Special Consultant” Tony LaRussa’s blood-alcohol content by game-end: .17

Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright’s 2013 Starts in Nipple-Tighteningly Cold Temperatures

Red Sox left-handed ace Jon Lester is slated to pitch tomorrow night against St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright in Game 1 of the 2013 World Series. The weather forecast calls for some chilly fall temperatures that will likely be sub-50 degrees by game time.

Lester has taken the ball three times this season for games in which the game-time temperature (per BaseballReference.com) was under 60⁰ F. All three starts came at Fenway Park, including Game 1 of the ALCS versus Detroit. The overall results have been encouraging.


Lester 2013 cold weather starts

The bad news for Boston is Wainwright was noticeably more dominant in his three “cold” weather starts. However, he has not made such a start since late April. Wainwright’s October starts have all come in warm to hot conditions – 89, 72 and 79 degrees.

Wainwright 2013 cold weather starts

Game 1 certainly has the feeling of a “pitcher’s duel” based on the quality of the starters and the forecasted temperatures. Watching guys with ailing hand/finger injuries foul inside pitches off his hands will be downright painful to watch. Shane Victorino might as well just sever the nerve endings in his right thumb before taking the field.

Anyway, the final score will probably wind up being something like 8-6.

Terse Predictions: ALCS Game 6, Detroit @ Boston

1. Boston will record three hits in the first two innings in which the batter swings at the first pitch dealt from Max Scherzer.

2. Another Xander Bogaerts start – another game in which the rookie reaches base safely multiple times.

3. Ryan Dempster will pitch two innings in the ballgame.

4. Clay Buchholz will run up two full counts in the first inning.

5. Dustin Pedroia will hit a home run.

6. So will Prince Fielder.

7. Joquin Benoit will not record another out this season.

8. One of the teams will top the series-high seven runs scored by Detroit in Game 3.

This Week in Boston Baseballing, October 11 – 17

After Boston got shut out in Game 1 of the ALCS Saturday night, 1-0, the Red Sox came back from a 5-0 deficit during Sunday night’s Game 2 emotional victory. Offense at Comerica Park was at a premium during the next three games, but Boston somehow managed to win two of three, including wins against two of the best pitchers in the AL this year in Justin Verlander and Anibel Sanchez.

The Red Sox are one win away from a third World Series appearance in 10 years. Clay Buchholz takes the mound for Boston on Saturday against Max Scherzer.

The Koji Factor
Koji Uehara recorded the final five outs of the game last night. They didn’t come nearly as easily as the outs he’s been getting over the last few months. The Tigers extracted 27 pitches out of Koji, even managing to lay off eight of his offerings. But the game, even a one-run game, felt a lot more secure in his hands than anyone else’s. Uehara retired all five batters he faced, striking out two.


Big Papi Did It Again

The legend was already pretty well set in place before the 2013 playoffs began.These last few years of regular season production felt like they could have been the icing on the cake. Now, it feels like there may be a few more layers to this guy’s mystique. You know the guy is pretty well established when it takes four minutes to piece together all the late-innings heroics he’s managed in the postseason alone.

Napoli Starts Mashing
Mike Napoli has always been a streaky hitter. Boston’s willingness to ride out the slumps now look to be paying dividends. Napoli’s solo home run Tuesday paced Boston’s unexpected victory against Verlander and his 440-foot shot to dead center last night led the way during a 3-for-4 night.

Napoli HR off Sanchez

Stan Grossfeld Still Has It
The sense here is that most people feel they have to categorize the shot of the Boston Police officer in the bullpen as iconic because of unfortunate events earlier this year that have thrust law enforcement personnel into the spotlight. Even Deadspin, which rarely passes up the chance to pick nits when it comes to Bostonian sports fan behavior, called the Stan Grossfeld shot at the front of Monday’s Boston Globe Sports section the “Photo of the Year.” Maybe that’s as fair a take as any.

Can’t we all just agree it’s nice to see a Boston Police officer do anything in uniform other than stand at an intersection and stare at a smartphone while a jackhammer screeches behind him?

John Lackey Continues His Renaissance
Lackey’s dominant performance in which he outdueled Justin Verlander on Tuesday afternoon was not only one of the best games of the pitcher’s career but also, given the context, one of the best starts by a Red Sox pitcher in the team’s playoff history.

From Jonah Keri on Grandland:

Of the 97 pitches he threw Tuesday night, Tigers hitters swung and missed at 16 of them, including six whiffs out of the 31 sliders thrown.

Somehow, what John Lackey has done in 2013 has nearly vindicated all of the drudgery of his first two years in Boston. It is almost as though his first two years, followed by his missing 2012 after Tommy John surgery, were a test of tolerance and patience – one in which we all failed as fans one way or another.

This would be the guy taking the ball in a potential Game 7.

Figuring Out Who John Farrell Trusts Is Getting More Confusing
Generally speaking, it appears the Red Sox manager determines the level of trust he has in a given player based primarily on seniority. One can make pretty solid, albeit debateable arguments he left two veterans in their respective ALCS starts too long – Clay Buchholz in Game 2 and Jake Peavy in Game 4. Moreover, Farrell has steadfastly refused to replace the struggling Stephen Drew in the lineup. Second-year “veteran” Will Middlebrooks also continued getting starts up until Game 5, when Xander Bogaerts was finally given a well-deserved look.

Meanwhile, there is a good possibility that Farrell occasionally gets swept up in the same narratives that are advanced by the media. For example, he declined to pinch hit Daniel Nava for Jonny Gomes in the 8th last night against right-hander Jose Veras.

None of this is really surprising to anyone paying attention to Farrell’s bullpen usage this season, when he exhibited a puzzling trust in rookie Brandon Workman during several key late and high-leverage situations. It appears younger players, especially rookies, have limited opportunity to impress Farrell enough to be given special leeway. Established veterans, meanwhile, are Established Veterans™.

Farrell has done an incredible job this year managing the team. But going forward, he’ll need to develop a better stomach for playing prospects because this is likely a ballclub that will only continue to get younger during the next few years. Maybe Bogaerts’ steady performance on Thursday night in which he doubled, scored a run and saw 19 pitches in just three ABs will help open Farrell’s mind when assessing younger players as viable options.

Terse Predictions: ALCS Game 5, Boston @ Detroit

Completely sincere, highly specific forecasts for a pivotal Game 5 at Comerica Park tonight.

1. Xander Bogaerts starts and he will work himself into multiple full-count at-bats.

2. The offensive breakout continues for both sides. Neither Jon Lester nor Anibel Sanchez will look sharp and each will allow at least four earned runs in six innings.

3. There will be a total of five double plays turned in the game. Stephen Drew will have his right foot on second base – at some point anyway – during two of them.

4. The game will take more than four hours to complete.

5. Tigers CEO / GM Dave Dombrowski will finally let out the massive fart he’s clearly been holding in since the late innings of Game 1 at Fenway Park. The results will be disastrous.

dave dombrowski

Terse Predictions: ALCS Game 4, Boston @ Detroit

The accuracy rate for these forecasts is getting embarrassing. But on we go.

1. A day after Jonny Gomes did the same, Daniel Nava will make another nice diving catch in left field.

2. Neither starter will get through six innings. Jake Peavy will pitch 5 ⅔; Doug Fister will pitch 5 ⅓.

3. Fox will milk the whole “Jake Peavy likes cursing at himself on the mound” element. The camera will catch him saying “fuck” and variations of “fuck” on four separate occasions.

4. Xander Bogaerts will score a run in the ballgame.

5. Detroit will hit two home runs in the game.

6. The final score of Game 4 won’t look like a soccer match, although Comerica Park will continue to sound like a European football stadium thanks to Tigers fans’ singing the chorus to “Seven Nation Army” in unison.

This Week in Boston Baseballing, October 4 – 10

Much to the chagrin of local media yahoos who declared the Best of 5 Division Series “over” after two games, Boston did indeed travel to Tampa Bay and it actually took the Red Sox four games to take care of the Rays to advance to the American League Championship Series. Boston will face the Detroit Tigers in ALCS Game 1 at Fenway Park on Saturday night.

Kudos to NESN’s Jenny Dell, who broke the news first on Twitter mere minutes after last night’s deciding ALDS game against Detroit and Oakland went final at the Coliseum last night.

 

Big Papi and Koji Uehara: Two Heterosexual Guys Celebrating A Playoff Series Win
Look, let’s all be adults about this here. For one thing, somebody sped up the footage here to make it appear more suggestive….

Click to enlarge, be horrified

(GIF courtesy of OvertheMonster.com.)

And for another, Koji could be seen earlier celebrating with catcher David Ross in a similar fashion, complete with a similar fist raise. Koji!

Koji celebrates with Ross

Ticket Prices Remain Reasonable for ALCS Games 1 and 2
The secondary market for tickets to the first two games of the ALCS Saturday and Sunday was relatively soft as of Friday morning. Strangely, upper-tier bleacher seats were listed on Stubhub for around $150.00-$200.00, right around the same going rate as unobstructed infield grandstand seats behind home plate.

Stubhub ALCS G1

The “Most Expensive World Series” In History Won’t Happen
A Forbes article from Wednesday broached the possibility that if the Pirates and Red Sox had advanced to the World Series, tickets to the games at Fenway Park and PNC Park would have reached historic peaks.

It would be the first World Series in Pittsburgh since Three Rivers, and the first world series there in a real baseball stadium since Bill Mazeroski walked off against the Yankees….If that were to happen, it could be the most expensive World Series in history, with two teams with average prices above $1,500.

It would also be the first time that an American League team from Boston played a National League team from Pittsburgh in the post-season since 1903. That was the year that the Boston Americans of the newly-formed American League beat the favored Pittsburgh Pirates in a best-of-nine series. It was the first ever World Series and neither Forbes Field or Fenway Park were even a twinkle in the eye of the baseball Gods. Forbes Field opened in 1909 and Fenway Park opened in 1912.

Xander Bogaerts Draws Two Huge Walks, Proves He Belongs
In his first postseason at-bat, 21-year-old Xander Bogaerts fell behind in the count 1-2 before working a key walk that spurred Boston’s series-clinching, two-run rally in the sixth inning in Tampa on Tuesday night. Earlier that day, Farrell had insinuated Bogey was perhaps still not quite ready for prime time when explaining why he’d not pinch hit for Stephen Drew against a lefty in Game 3 the night before. Well, a day later Farrell exercised his right to change his mind. Just in case there was any question that it was a fluke, Bogaerts worked a second full count before drawing another walk two innings later. He would score an insurance run prior to Koji Uehara’s dominant ninth inning.

Jake Peavy Comes Through
Right-handed veteran Jake Peavy gave the Red Sox 5 ⅔ key innings in the clincher in Tampa in what was by far the best postseason start of his career. While he was a more accomplished pitcher earlier in his career, Peavy could still very much be in the process of penning his ultimate legacy.

In an interview posted on Fangraphs earlier this week, the former Cy Young winner remarked about his transformation, which has included changes to his arm slot and the development of a cutter in the wake of diminished fastball velocity and a lower ground-ball rate compared to his peak.

“Everybody in the world has a way they throw a baseball. They start that from the time they’re a youngster and go from there. You can look at guys who people say have the best mechanics in the world, and their arms may not last. You have other guys who throw in an unorthodox fashion and never have an arm injury. I don’t think anybody has it down to an exact science. But I also don’t think anybody is going to watch me and say, ‘Hey, son, watch the way Jake Peavy throws. Let’s mimic that.’ Not too many people are teaching their kids to throw the way I throw.”

Craig Breslow May Be Pitching Even More Than Usual
The left-handed reliever threw 3 ⅔ scoreless innings in the Rays series and demonstrated no difficulty getting right-handed hitters out (1 for 9). Breslow was in fact better in 2013 against righties (.205 AVG) than lefties (.253) and, overall, threw the equivalent of almost 10 more innings against right-handers (34 ⅔) than lefties (25 innings).

Going into the ALCS, John Farrell’s confidence in Breslow seems to be at its peak. Detroit’s 3-4-5 hitters are Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez (righty, lefty, switch). Cabrera’s power has been sapped in recent weeks by groin and abdominal strains. It would not be a surprise to see Breslow face the likely AL MVP once or twice as his ability to get strikes on outside breaking balls could prove a key asset.